The NBA Finals moves to Cleveland this week, as the Cavaliers return to the friendly confines of Quicken Loans Arena staring down an 0-2 deficit. The home team has been dominant in the series, but Game 3 odds still have the Warriors as a small favorite.
NBA Finals Odds
The Warriors have been a consistent double-digit favorite so far in this series, but they are just a four-point favorite for Game 3 according to OddsShark.com. On the moneyline, the Warriors are priced at -160 and the Cavaliers are at +150. According to SportsInsights.com, 78 percent of moneyline bets tonight are on the Cavaliers.
Golden State only covered one of their two home games, and they’ve been poor as a small favorite. OddsShark notes that when the Warriors are favored by 4.5 points or less they are 1-6 straight up in their last seven. Meaning not only has Golden State not covered, but they’ve lost the game outright.
The point total has been set at 216.5, and 60 percent of bets are on the over. The over has been a consistent winner whenever these teams have met, hitting in six of the last eight meetings between these teams. The over is 2-0 so far in this series.
The Cavs are a half-point favorite in the first half, and the moneyline is a tossup at -115. Steph Curry’s late 3 pushed the halftime score in Game 1, while Golden State opened things up early in Game 2.
The MVP race is pretty much over through two games, as Steph Curry’s record-breaking performance in Game 2 has set him apart in a quest for his first career Finals MVP. Kevin Durant was off in Game 1, and a solid performance in Game 2 was outshined by Curry’s nine three-pointers. Curry is a wide betting favorite at -335, with Durant trailing at +315. For those curious, LeBron James is priced at +800.
NBA Finals Prediction
If the Cavaliers want to defend home court and extend this series, they’ll need to, once again, get help from their supporting cast. Unfortunately, even if the role players for Cleveland do step up tonight, Golden State should be getting more help of their own.
Andre Iguodala has been dealing with a bone bruise in his knee since Game 3 of the Western Conference finals, but warmed up Wednesday afternoon and could return to action. Iguodala makes an impact at both ends, but where he is most effective is at slowing down LeBron James.
I’m not really going to factor in the Perkins-Curry beef into any decision-making, mostly because Perkins is irrelevant. Curry is healthy and hitting shots, meaning he is going to be at most annoying at all times on the court.
I think the Cavaliers will come out strong, but the whole game will be one Warriors run from getting out of hand. Cleveland has been outworking Golden State on the glass, and they’ll need to keep up that intensity throughout.
On home court, I’ll put slightly more faith in the role players in Cleveland. J.R. Smith needs people to forget about his Game 1 fiasco, and the arena will have a desperate feel. There’s always the concern that Golden State will shoot 60 percent from the field and be unbeatable, and that’s why I’m staying away from a team tonight.
Prediction: Lock in the OVER, Cleveland 1H
Source: Heavy Sports