Mexico sits in a good position to advance to the Round of 16, but has not officially advanced heading into their final match of group play. Mexico can advance to the next round even with a loss to Sweden, but it gets a lot more complicated. Here’s a look at the Group F standings heading into the final day of group play.
Group F Standings
With a win over Mexico, Sweden would be tied with Mexico as both squads would have six points. It would be a two-way tie if Germany loses, or three-way tie if Germany is able to get a win. If Mexico ends up tied with Germany and/or Sweden in the standings, the first tiebreaker is goal differential. Mexico headed into the final day with a two goal lead on both teams. This could change in a number of ways based on the score of Germany’s match as well as the result of the Mexico-Sweden game.
A win or draw guarantees Mexico would not only advance to the Round of 16, but win Group F. While Mexico would prefer a win, a draw will give them the same result as a victory as they would sitting atop Group F.
Regardless of the outcome against Sweden, Mexico can also advance with a Germany loss or draw. If Mexico can advance, they will face the winner of Group E if Mexico finishes second. If Mexico wins the group, they will face the Group E runner-up. Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia are Mexico’s potential opponents.
FiveThirtyEight’s projections had Sweden as the slight favorite with a 37 percent win probability, while Mexico was listed at 34 percent. The projections gave a draw a 29 percent chance of happening. Germany is a massive favorite in the projections with the computer giving Germany an 81 percent chance to win.
Mexico’s manager Juan Carlos Osorio noted the team still has some unfinished business to take care of before the tournament ends.
“It’s very comforting and moving to see how the Mexican fans follow their team,” Osario explained to ESPN. “I’m very moved listening to the national anthem, so imagine how the players feel. I don’t think there are many groups of supporters who show this unlimited passion for their team. Football is about opinions, it’s very subjective and it changes all the time. The analysis is more about the result so the most appropriate thing for us is to keep preparing and not get carried out. We must prepare for the next game as if it is the last and get as far in the World Cup as we can.”
Mexico has advanced to the Round of 16 in six straight World Cups, but have also failed to win a match once they arrived in all of these six appearances. According to OddsShark, a draw is the mostly likely outcome at +225. A Sweden victory is next in line at +196, while a Mexico win is third in the odds at +141. Mexico has been one of the surprises of the tournament thanks to their opening win against Germany to start off the World Cup.
Source: Heavy Sports